Socio economics of traffic

Every time I write a blog, I strive to help readers connect with the content. Regardless of the topic, I want them to feel the same connection I experience while writing. Recently, I found myself struggling to come up with topics that evoke this feeling. While driving, I thought, "What is it that each and every one of us can relate to?" That's when it hit me: the one thing we can all connect on is the good old Indian traffic. Bharat is the fastest growing economy in the world along with its population touching 1.4 billion. However, this growth comes with its own sets of challenges, and one of the most pressing ones is traffic congestion. 

As more people move to urban areas in search of better opportunities, the number of vehicles on the road has increased dramatically, leading to long hours of waiting in traffic. Urbanization is not about simply increasing the number urban residents or expanding the area of cities. More importantly, it's about a complete change from rural to urban style in terms of industry structure, employment, living environment and social security. Clearly, Bharat has misjudged the transition from rural to urban areas. While real estate and auto companies have benefited from this exponential growth, one must ask: at what cost? That’s what we will discuss in today’s blog. I aim to make you think about traffic in a way you’ve never considered before. So, let's dive deep inside the already congested traffic jam of Bharat. 

A recent study by the TomTom Traffic Index has shown that Bengaluru, India’s leading IT city, is the world’s second most traffic-congested city. For instance, traveling a distance of 10 km within Bengaluru city limits takes close to 30 minutes, whereas the same distance can be covered in less than 13 minutes in Dubai and in under 20 minutes in Silicon Valley. Notably, it takes less than 30 minutes for Kipchoge to run 10 km. A post went viral from Bengaluru when a man shared that Google Maps indicated it would take less time to walk 6 km than to use a vehicle.

However, Bengaluru is not alone in facing this problem, as other major Indian cities also suffer from severe traffic congestion. Mumbai, the financial capital of India, experienced an 11-minute increase in travel time for 10 km during the morning rush and a 14-minute increase in the evening. Mumbai ranks as the fourth most congested city in the world, with 65% congestion. After an extensive survey, the Mumbai traffic police identified five locations across the city that are the worst affected by traffic.

Mumbai is literally short on roads. The city is also undergoing extensive development, with plans for an underground metro, underground tunnels, floating bridges, and metro lines over bypasses. Because of this construction, it has become difficult for commuters to walk, let alone drive.

Pune has recently experienced a sudden rise in traffic congestion. I have been residing in Pune for the last 13 years and have never seen such levels of congestion. Every day, when people leave their homes for work, it looks like an army from Maheshmati is emerging from the palace. In the past, when people in Pune left their homes, they dreamed of enjoying some Chitale Bakarwadi with a nice cup of tea in the evening. That was bliss back then. Nowadays, reaching home early has become a luxury. If you somehow manage to escape traffic jams in Chakan, Kondwa, Nashik Phata, Nal Stop, and University Road, that would be considered a stroke of luck. Jokes aside, traffic is a very serious problem. It is like a double-edged sword, affecting both the nation's health and the well-being of the common man. 

The toll of unplanned traffic extends far beyond wasted time; it also leads to significant waste of fuel and money. A report by BCG estimates that the total cost of congestion in India in 2019 was a staggering $22 billion, which translates to roughly a loss of Rs 1,250 per person per day. This cost is expected to rise to $37 billion by 2030 if no action is taken. Beyond monetary loss, excessive traffic also affects human productivity. A study by ISEC highlighted that Bengaluru could be losing Rs 19,725 crore annually due to time and resources spent navigating traffic. If you multiply that by nine (since India has nine metro cities), you get a loss of several billion dollars in productivity.

Being stuck in traffic after leaving home with a fresh mind increases frustration and decreases patience levels. The only exciting thing to see in traffic is road rage—just kidding! A significant drop in patience has led to road rage incidents when drivers have to wait even one extra minute after the signal turns green. Additionally, the unorganized markets in India (such as roadside garbage bag and flower sellers) have experienced a dramatic decline. Fuel cost is not just limited to the monetary value. It also has profound environmental implications. Traffic congestion increases emission and air pollution, contributing to climate change and other health issues. 

Fortunately, or unfortunately, traffic also has major effects on human fertility. A recent Danish study has shed light on how road traffic and noise can be detrimental to fertility. Infertility was diagnosed in 16,172 men (out of 526,056 participants) and 22,672 women (out of 377,850) due to exposure to toxic air, loud noises, and associated frustration. In 1971, India's fertility rate was 5.4, but it has decreased to 1.6 in 2021. Additionally, the risk of heart attacks and high blood pressure is rising in India, with a hypertension prevalence of 24% in men and 21% in women recorded. The average age at which these health issues arise has fallen from 75 to 69 years. Cholesterol levels have also increased, partly because of changes in eating schedules.

To mitigate traffic problems, it is essential to focus on sustainable solutions that emphasize long-term planning rather than pursuing short-term fixes. While short-term solutions such as road widening, temporary parking, and flyovers may provide immediate relief, they often lack sustainability in the long run and can create additional problems. Instead, long-term planning that considers at least 50 years, if not 100 years, into the future is necessary for infrastructure projects like building new roads or redesigning existing ones. Such planning can help prevent the need for frequent modifications and renovations, which can be costly and disruptive to traffic flow.

Efficient traffic management has significant economic benefits. According to a report by the World Economic Forum, reducing traffic congestion could add $600 billion to India's GDP over the next 15 years. This is due to various factors, such as increased productivity and reduced fuel consumption. When people spend less time in traffic, they can use that time more productively, whether for work or leisure activities, which in turn leads to increased economic output. In India, road accidents are a major public health and safety concern, with an estimated 150,000 people losing their lives each year. Beyond the human costs, road accidents also impose high economic costs, including medical expenses, lost productivity, and property damage. Moreover, reducing traffic congestion can lead to fewer road accidents. Efficient traffic management also has the potential to increase public transport usage, thereby reducing the number of private vehicles on the road. This can lead to decreased fuel consumption, less traffic congestion, and fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 

It would be really awesome to live in an India that Nayak: The real hero movies showed. Also, I want to end this blog by giving you an interesting statistic. Motor vehicles per 1000 people in India is about 150. The same metric for USA and China stands at 900 and 300 respectively. Get ready for more traffic people. 

Happy Investing.